Atletico Madrid v. Real Madrid Betting Odds and Tips – 2011.11.17

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Cross town rivals Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid find themselves in an an exciting battling, tied with 23 points for third in The Primera Liga. And while Real has carried the banner for not only La Liga but the Champions League as well in recent years, we could be witnessing a true changing of the guard.


Atletico Madrid – (3.10)

Real Madrid – (2.20)

Draw – (3.50)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (1.90)

Under – (1.90)

Both Teams To Score

Yes – (1.70)

No – (2.05)

Atletico Madrid plays host for this match, and sit at 6-5-0. To be undefeated and only two games back of second place on the league table is an incredible stat, but their season has been largely unspectacular outside of that. Only winning half of their matches at Wanda Metropolitano and scoring 16 goals in 11 matches puts them middle of the league in those two fields. They do shine defensively though, second only to Barcelona by allowing a mere 6 goals against.

Atletico has one of the worse home offenses, in fact, averaging 1.25 goals for, well below the Liga average of 1.60. Shooters Correa and Ferreira Carrasco combine for 7 of their 16 team goals, with only 2 of those coming on their home pitch. Still, they remain 2-2-0 at home and haven’t conceded more than 1 in their new stadium, notching two clean sheets.

On the other side, Real Madrid is the third best club on the road, going 4-0-1 away from Santiago Bernabéu. Real notches nearly a full goal more than the rest of the Primera Liga while on the road, 2.20 to 1.18.

They sit with a record of 7-2-2 on the year, doing their best despite the lack of production from key players like Kroos, Bale, and Ronaldo. On the year Real Madrid has knocked in 22 goals and only allowed 9, a difference of +13, and that was done with the three previously mentioned stars combining for a mere 4 goals.

The leading scorers for the club are Isco, who is frequently buried in the bench, and Asensio, both scoring 4 goals a piece. Unfortunately only 1 of those combined 8 have come on the road.

For in play punters, look for Gareth Bale and Ceballos as goal scorers, and both have only scored their combined 4 away from home. Also, look for Real to score first, as they have in 82% of their matches, with 64% of their goals in total coming in the first half of the match. Fittingly, 75% of Atletico’s goals have come after half time.


Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 Real Madrid

Some important stats shape this decision. First of all, Atletico’s undefeated streak of 11 games should be tough to snap at home. But with that being said, 100% of Real Madrid’s road games have seen more than 2.5 goals scored, 80% sees both teams scoring. The likelihood of Real climbing to an early lead before Atletico knots it up in the second half is high.

Look for Draw (3.50), Over 2.5 goals (1.90), and both clubs to score (1.70) all to hit.

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