Every year the NFL MVP competition looks very similar: A bunch of quarterbacks, a running back or two, and one great defender everyone knows won’t win. Here’s a look at the stand-out odds for the early MVP favorites.
Tom Brady +500
Aaron Rodgers +500
Derek Carr +700
Ben Roethlisberger +900
Dak Preskott +1600
Matt Ryan +1600
Le’veon Bell +1600
Russell Wilson +1600
Ezekiel Elliott +2000
Drew Brees +2500
JJ Watt +6000
Khalil Mack +6600
Von Miller +10000
Of course, Tom Brady stands out in front again. Given his 28-2 touchdown to interception ratio last season, as well as his historic comeback over the reigning MVP Matt Ryan in the Super Bowl, its a no-brainer favorite. Aaron Rodgers shares first place, but will need to get off to a faster start than the last two seasons if he wants to win the title.
In a four way split for third is Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Le’veon Bell and Dak Preskott. Though repeating is a tall order, Matt Ryan has a great chance to do just that.
While there absolutely is a chance Dak Preskott could win MVP in his second season, he just won’t. Winning games is a team achievement, and the Cowboys finishing 13-3 has Preskott overvalued as a Quarterback.
Speaking of Quarterback, it looks like that is where your bets should be going. The first none Quarterback to come up on the list is Le’veon Bell, who could be holding out this season, then Ezekiel Elliott, who faces some sort of suspension this year.
Since 2005 only 3 none Quarterbacks have won MVP; Shaun Alexander in ’05, Ladainian Tomlinson in ’06, and Adrian Peterson in 2012.
No defensive player has won MVP since Lawrence Taylor, with the only defenders considered in the early odds are sack artists JJ Watt, Khalil Mack and Von Miller.
If we had to pick our favorite odds to bet on, its Drew Brees, who has made a career out of throwing for 5000 yards a season. If that can be transferring in to a deep playoff run, there are some huge earnings to be found on him.
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