Shakhtar Donetsk v. Manchester City Betting Odds and Tips – 2017.12.05

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Manchester City


It’s rare to see Manchester City not the overwhelming favorite in just about every match. But this week they face Champions League group rival Shakhtar Donetsk in The Ukraine facing an uphill odds battle.

Odds

Shakhtar – (2.37)

Manchester City – (3.25)

Draw – (3.40)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (1.80)

Under – (2.00)

Both Clubs To Score

Yes – (1.61)

No – (2.20)

Manchester City has been no less than the most dominant club in all of Europe, leading the Premier League with 43 points and scoring an insane 46 goals, resulting in a 14-1-0 record. That success has carried over to The Champions League as they are leading Group F with a 5-0-0 and a +10 goal difference. They’ve got a 6 point lead over their opponents in this fixture Shakhtar.

The last time City and Shakhtar faced off ended in a 2-0 Manchester victory. That’s a common outcome for the powerhouse, as 57% of their matches have ended in them leaving their opponents pitch with a clean sheet. They’ve only allowed 0.6 goals per Champions League fixture and 0.66 goals conceded. 0.57 on the road,  in Premier play.

This, matched with their incredible offensive output has made them an unstoppable force. Averaging a wild 2.57 goals per road match, Manchester City has a +36 goal difference in Premier League and +10 in Champions. Doing the Lion’s share of the work are Sterling, Aguero, Jesus, and Sane, combining for 32 of Man City’s 43 goals. This includes Sterling, Aguero, and Jesus tallying 12 on the road of their 26 combined.

The story is quite a bit different for Shakhtar. Leading the Ukraine Premier League with a record of 13-3-2, 4 points ahead of Kiev and a +21 goal difference. In the Champions League, they’ve surprised a lot of people, sitting in second ahead of Napoli with a 3-0-2 record with a -1 difference.

Yet to pitch a clean sheet against tougher international competition, Shakhtar isn’t even near the top of their own League with a 33% clean sheet percentage. Luckily for them they still manage a positive home conceded goal percentage, only allowing 0.89 goals with pitch advantage. In Champions League play The Ukrainian club has allowed 8 in 5 matches, but only 2 at home.

In the Premier League, they have tallied a league-best 37 goals, averaging 1.90 goals at home. It’s not as positive for Shakhtar in Champions League, as they’ve scored 7 through 5 matches, ranked third in Group F. in the Ukrainian Premier League Ferreyra, Marlos, and Bernard have combined for 26 of their 37 goals, 13 of those coming at home for the trio of scorers.

For In-Play Punters: Shakhtar has allowed a goal in the first 15 minutes of 31% of their matches. 75% of Manchester City’s matches have totaled over 2.5 goals, and have scored the opening goal in 73% of their matches.

Prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk 0 – 3 Manchester City

(Correctly predicting this outcome is valued at 29.00)

While they’ve been doing surprisingly well in Group F, Shakhtar isn’t in the same league as Manchester City. Manchester shows next to no weakness, even away from home, and aren’t facing a club that can truly test them here.

Look for Manchester City (3.25), Over 2.5 Goals (1.80), and ‘No’ on Both Clubs to score (2.20)  all to hit.

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Malaga v. Levante Betting Odds and Tips – 2017.12.01

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Things could be going better for Malaga and Levante. Levante sits in 15th position, one win from jumping to 8th, or one loss from dropping to 17th. Malaga is fairing much worse, stuck in relegation multiple wins back from freedom. Will home pitch advantage get them going in the right direction?

Odds

Malaga – (1.75)

Levante – (4.50)

Draw – (3.80)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (2.05)

Under – (1.75)

Both Clubs to Score

Yes – (1.95)

No – (1.80)

Not much has gone right in the way of earning victories for Malaga this year. Going 2-1-10 so far, the silver lining that could be pulled from that is they’ve gone 2-0-2 in their last 4, including their most recent loss where they gave powerhouse Real Madrid a run for their money in a 3-2 match finish.

Not the strongest club at home, Malaga has tallied all 7 of their league points on their own pitch, and all in their last 8 matches, having their last 8 stronger than their opponents Levante.

Their home offense is considerably strong, with 9 of their 11 goals coming at home. That has a home average of 1.50 goals scored per match, not too shabby. Almost no heroes on attack for them, however, with Rolan leading the charge with 3, 2 of which have come at home.

The bad news understandably continues there for a bottom three club, as Malaga hasn’t posted a clean sheet at home all season, and average 2,00 goals conceded with pitch advantage. While not good by league standards, there is something to be said for only allowing 12 of your 28 conceded goals at home.

Levante is only doing marginally better coming into this fixture, however. Going 3-6-4 on the year, the club has had a rough 8 game stretch resulting in a 1-3-4 record. Away from home, they are only managing 1-3-1, the definition of ‘Not Great, but Not Terrible.’

On offense on the road, Levante has stayed notably quiet. a meager 5 of their 14 goals have come as the visiting club, giving them an average of 1.00. Of their top goal scorers Morales and Bahdi, who coming for 8 goals on the year, only 2 of those have come on the road; no single player has more than 1 road goal across the club.

Similar to Malaga, Levante has seen some success on defense, only allowing 7 of their conceded 20 goals away from home. They also have blanked clubs in 40% of their away matches, an advantage they hold over Malaga, and notably better than their defensive performances at home.

For In-Play Punters: Malaga has conceded the opening goal in 85% of their matches. Both Malaga and Levante have scored 36% of their goals after the 75th minute of the match.

Prediction

Malaga 1 – 2 Levante

(Correctly predicting this outcome is valued at 15.00)

While Malaga’s 8 game stretch has them riding hotter than Levante, there’s something to be said for a club that has conceded a goal in every single match of the year. This puts the club behind the 8 Ball immediately.

Look for Levante (4.50), Over 2.5 Goals (2.05), and Both Clubs to Score (1.95) all to hit.

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Monaco v. Paris Saint Germain Betting Odds and Tips – 2017.11.26

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Paris Saint Germain


Monaco repeating their Ligue 1 title hasn’t been much of a situation since Neymar moved to Paris. Now PSG is running away from the rest of the league going into what will be a hotly contested match between the top of the table.

Odds

Monaco – (5.50)

PSG – (1.53)

Draw – (4.75)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (1.36)

Under – (3.10)

Both Clubs To Score

Yes – (1.50)

No – (2.50)

This is one of the few leagues in all of Europe the Monaco can be 9-2-2 and still be multiple games out of first position. Showing incredible dominance, its been four matches since they’ve conceded a loss, going 6-1-1 in their last 8 fixtures.

Now with the advantageous position of hosting the first match against Paris, Monaco looks to turn in another strong home showing. Going 5-1-0 with the pitch advantage, only PSG has a better home record. Scoring 21 of their 35 goals at home, second in Ligue 1, Monaco is averaging a monstrous 3.87 goals a fixture at home, and have scored in every home match this year.

This is in large part due to the godlike performance of Falcao this year, scoring 13 of Monaco’s 35, 7 of which have been on their own pitch. Unfortunately, nobody outside of Falcao has more than 3 goals, so they will be dependant on their star forward for this match.

Not to be outdone on defense, Monaco has conceded the third-fewest tallies so far with 13, only allowing 4 with pitch advantage. They have an incredible 50% clean sheet percentage while playing at home.

And then there’s the undefeated Paris Saint Germain, who have been just as dominant in every way but could be at a disadvantage here. On the road, PSG has gone 11-2-0, leads Ligue 1 in Goals scored with 40 and has only conceded 9 on the year.

What is deceptive about these stats is only 17 of their 40 goals scored and 4 of their 9 conceded have come away from Paris. That means their home goal difference is +4, but on the road it is only +2. Nothing to shake your fist at, but a notable lack of production by comparison.

That’s not to say they don’t have goal production on the road though, as Cavani and Neymar Jr. have combined for 22 goals on the year, 9 of which were scored on the road.

For In-Play Punters: Paris Saint Germain has scored the opening goal in 77% of their matches, but has conceded a goal after the 75th minute in 44% of their fixtures.

Prediction

Monaco 2 – 1 Paris Saint Germain

(Correcting predicting this score is valued at 17.00)

PSG’s performance this year has been undeniably great, but that shouldn’t take away from a club like Monaco. Their incredible home advantage against Paris’ quietly disappointing road stats lends itself to an upset in match 14 of Ligue 1 action.

Look for Monaco (5.50), Over 2.5 goals (1.36), and both clubs to score (1.50) all to hit.

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Crystal Palace v. Stoke City Betting Odds and Tips – 2017.11.25

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Premier League


Not every fixture is a battle for the top of the table. For some like Crystal Palace, it’s about trying to steal one from the middle of the pack Stoke City in an attempt to dodge relegation. Lucky for them, they get home pitch advantage, one of the only places they aren’t last in the Premier League (they’re second to last).

Odds

Crystal Palace – (2.05)

Stoke City – (3.60)

Draw – (3.30)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (2.10)

Under – (1.70)

Both Clubs To Score

Yes – (1.90)

No – (1.90)

This is not the best year Crystal Palace has played. After a dismal 0-0-7 open to their campaign, they’ve been put against the wall to escape relegation. The silver lining for them, however, is that since then they’ve gone 1-2-2, putting them one match behind Swansea City and only 4 points from escaping the bottom two table spots.

Their luck continues into this matchup, as Crystal Palace gets to play on their home pitch, where they perform notably better. They’ve managed to leave with points in 50% of their home fixtures, going 1-2-3, including a shocking upset over Chelsea. They average 1 goal at Selhurst Park, scoring all 6 of their tallies on the year in 3 of their 6 home matches. They also average 1.83 goals conceded, 0.70 more than the Premier League average, but 0.30 less than they average on the road. So it’s not all bad I suppose.

Crystal Palace’s hero is undoubtedly Zaha, who holds a massive 50% share of their offense with 3 goals, all of which are at home. If you were to bet on a Palace player to score at some point in the match, it’s him.

For Stoke City, the scene is not as bleak, but only marginally brighter. On the year Stoke is 3-4-5, putting them 15th on the table. On the road, they are 1-2-3 as well, scoring 7 of their 15 goals and conceding 13 of their 24. This puts their offensive and defensive efforts while on enemy pitches on par with Crystal Palace’s efforts at home, making this a tight match up all around.

For Stoke City, three players champion the offense; Diouf, Choupo-Moting, and Crouch, all scoring 3 a piece, including 3 total goals on the road. This has cause Stoke City to put at least one in on the road in 5 straight away matches.

For In-Play Punters: Crystal Palace have scored 67% of their goals in the first half, but go into halftime losing in 58% of their matches, including conceding the first goal in 83% of their fixtures.

Prediction

Crystal Palace 1 – 2 Stoke City

(Correctly predicting this score is valued at 15.00)

Stoke City has not had the worst season thus far, and this is a good opportunity to turn things around. They’ve played in matches that have topped 2.5 goals 67% of the time, so it’s fair to assume that Crystal Palace’s home-only offense will put at least one up, but it won’t be enough.

Look for Stoke City (3.60), Over 2.5 goals (2.10), and both clubs to score (1.90) all to hit.

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Dortmund v. Schalke 04 Betting Odds and Tips – 2017.11.25

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Dortmund


What a dramatic fall from grace for Dortmund over the last month and a half. Only 4 matches ago they were top of the Bundesliga table, and since then they’ve gone 0-1-4, conceding four table spots and locking them in a tie for 5th with Hoffenheim. Now they face Schalke 04, recently climbing to a tie for second place.

Dortmund – (1.60)

Schalke – (4.75)

Draw – (4.33)

Goal Over/Under – 2.5

Over – (1.53)

Under – (2.40)

Both Clubs to Score

Yes – (1.61)

No – (2.20)

It’s a very different match for both these clubs. For Schalke, going 4-2-0 in their last 6 has put them within two matches distance from the top of the table. For Dortmund, just trying to save themselves from falling out of the top 5 all together. Having lost their last two fixtures at home by an aggregate score of 6-3, Dortmund looks to get back on track against the second leading defensive club in The Bundesliga.

For Schalke, a game away from home turf may very well be a blessing. Through 12 matches that have them sitting at 7-2-3, 3-0-2 of that has come on the road. That may not pass the eye test, but it is the 6th best away record in The Bundesliga. It also helps to consider that they are facing the 11th worst home record in Dortmund.

On the road, Schalke has been involved in some quiet matches. scoring 5 of their 16 goals and allowing only 4 of their second best 10 goals conceded have them averaging 1 goal for and 0.80 against away from Veltins Arena. 2 of their 3 road victories have come with clean sheets, but both of their defeats saw them blanked as well. Their uneven trends don’t stop their, as Schalke boasts three strong offensive talents in Goretzka, Burgstaller, and Bentaleb, all of whom combine for 11 goals. Unfortunately, that is 11 of 16 total, 8th in the league. Only 3 of those 11 are were scored on the road.

Still, Schalke 04 have the second best defense in The Bundesliga, conceding only 10 goals, a mere 2 more than the stacked Bayern Munich.

Dortmund, on the other hand, has had a tough time keeping clubs from celebrating for 7 straight matches now. They’ve gone 0-1-4 in their last 5 since starting the year 6-1-0, and have conceded goals 16 goals in their last 7 fixtures. If there is a silver lining, its that they have only allowed 7 goals at their home pitch, and are still scoring with relative ease, putting up 29 goals, only 1 behind league leader Bayern Munich.

At home, Dortmund is averaging 3.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded. This large offensive performance is in large part thanks to Aubameyang, whose put in 8 of his club-leading 10 goals at home. Philipp has also tallied 4 of his 6 at Westfalenstadion.

For In-Play Punters: Dortmund has gone into halftime leading the match 58% of the time.

Prediction

Dortmund 3 – 1 Schalke

(Correctly Predicting this score is valued at 12.00)

After beginning the year 3-0-3, Schalke 04 is riding high, right into second position is a tough Bundesliga. Still, They face some glaring issues, including their inability to flex offensive muscle like half the league ahead of them. Facing a Dortmund squad that has been involved in matches exceeding 2.5 goals 83% of the year, you need to be able to go blow for blow with the Borussia club.

Look for Dortmund (1.60), over 2.5 goals (1.53), and Yes on Both clubs scoring (1.51) all to hit.

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